England to cruise to victory

[sake]

England take on Lithuania in Group E of the Euro 2016 qualifying campaign on Friday and Ben Linfoot provides betting tips.


Back England to beat Lithiania 3-0 and England to beat Lithuania 4-0

It’s not all about Harry Kane, there is a Euro 2016 qualifier to be won after all, but it is quite a lot about Harry Kane. England’s odds, mostly 1/9 generally, accurately reflect their chance of victory over Lithuania, so presuming there are no shocks here the story is going to be about England’s new boy wonder.

The Tottenham striker, with 29 goals to his name in all competitions this season, was odds-on to start before ‘that’ bit of paper was spotted during training and it’s really a no-brainer. Why wouldn’t you pitch in the Premier League’s joint-top goalscorer in a home qualifier against a country you are widely expected to brush aside?

Kane deserves to play, should play, in all probability will play and plenty will be tempted by odds as short as 4/5 about him marking his England debut with a goal. It’s 100/30 that he breaks the deadlock, 20/1 that he scores a hat-trick (incredibly 6/1 in a place) and you can even bet on him to score for Lithuania at odds of 33/1.

The only markets I’d be looking to side with him in are the first goalscorer or anytime ones, but, even after taking into account his electric form in the Premier League, his odds are short enough. Even though it’s only Lithuania, the (slower) pace of international football takes getting used to, and I don’t want to back him at odds-on to score a goal.

There are no reasons why Kane shouldn’t slot in nicely alongside Wayne Rooney and contribute in some way to a comfortable victory, though. England have become metronomic in qualifying for major tournaments recently and their ability to turn up and do enough to beat moderate opposition is not questioned.

Indeed, already they top Group E by six points after just four games; four games that have yielded four victories thanks to 11 goals scored while only conceding the once, and that was an own goal.

Lithuania, on the other hand, have two wins from four, and their wins came over San Marino and Estonia, the two minnows in the group. When they have come up against the better sides – Switzerland and Slovenia – they were handsomely beaten without scoring a goal, 0-4 and 0-2 respectively.

England have already beaten both Switzerland and Slovenia by two goals, and 2-0 is the favourite in the correct score market against Lithuania. Should it be? England have already beaten the two better sides than Lithuania by the same margin in this qualifying campaign and collateral form suggests they should win Friday’s fixture more comfortably.

Seldom is it as simplistic or easy as that, but there are few reasons to expect anything but a comfortable victory on Friday. Plenty of England’s players are in good form – Kane, obviously, but also Rooney, Jordan Henderson, Michael Carrick and defenders like Chris Smalling, who probably won’t have much to do in any case.

With confidence high there is talk of a happy camp too; players have commented on the positive atmosphere which helps the new players like Kane settle and hopefully it will help the team construct a decent performance against inferior opposition.


It’s important to question the cohesion of the attack given these players haven’t played together for four months, but it isn’t something I’d be too concerned about. For a start there are several little club link-ups in the offensive part of the team (Henderson and Raheem Sterling from Liverpool, Carrick and Rooney from Manchester United), while the record of Hodgson’s England after a break is a good one.

Since Hodgson took over in May 2012 England have played six times following a break of two months or more and they have won five times, drawing once. Their victories included wins over Brazil and a high-tempo 3-2 victory over Scotland, so rustiness shouldn’t play a part, especially at this stage of the season.

England did concede four times in those six games; those two against Scotland and also goals versus Brazil and the Republic of Ireland, but that isn’t a concern against Lithuania who seem to have a very sparse goal threat judging by their meagre return of just three in qualifying thus far.

An England win to nil looks a likely scenario and one the bookies rate a 1/2 chance. It’s no surprise, then, to see the first four favourites in the correct score market England victories to nil, but, going back to the earlier question, I’m not sure 2-0 should be favourite given the form of England’s players, the lacklustre opposition and the record of Hodgson’s England after a break.

I would rather back them to win 3-0 and 4-0 at odds of 5/1 and 17/2 respectively and dutching the pair at the advised staking plan (2.45pts at 5/1 and 1.55pts at 17/2) will ensure a healthy profit of over 10pts should they go and do the business.

[khan.noman33]

a very informative post