United have what it takes

[sake]

Last term we made big profits in the FA Cup backing runners-up Hull at 100/1. Find out who Ben Coley is siding with this season.


3pts Manchester United to win the FA Cup at 13/2

1pt e.w. Stoke to win the FA Cup at 40/1

1pt Charlton to be the furthest-progressing Football League team at 33/1

It could be said that the only thing predictable about the FA Cup is the betting.

As is now standard, it's just about 11/2 the field with the best teams in the Premier League - Chelsea and Manchester City - fighting for favouritism.

Just behind are the best of the rest - Manchester United and holders Arsenal - while Liverpool also figure prominently in a market which tends not to change much before the third round.

Some of those who have exceeded expectations in the league have seen their price adjusted, most notably Southampton whose success under Ronald Koeman combined with a home tie with Championship opponents means they're 20/1 from 33s back in August.

Fellow high-fliers West Ham had been trimmed to 33/1 from 50s but are back out to 40/1 after being drawn to face Everton at Goodison Park, while the Toffees are a rare example of a side whose price has been eased - to 20/1 from 14s - following a poor run of results in the Premier League.

The task of trying to find the winner of this famous competition is not an easy one, but the rewards for doing so can be significant. Just last season, Betting Zone followers were advised to take 100/1 about eventual finalists Hull and there have been numerous big-priced finalists and even winners in recent years, with the likes of Wigan and Portsmouth most famously upsetting the odds.

While Wigan's success came in a season which saw them relegated, the case for Hull was built around the fact that, prior to round three, they were going well at 10th in the Premier League and a handful of good results away from safety. They would be free to focus on the FA Cup, so the theory went, and combined with a kind draw that helped them land an each-way touch.

Arsenal, of course, would fight back to beat Hull in a thrilling final and, again, the Gunners had licence to prioritise the competition. Their last-16 exit in the Champions League came at a time when any hopes of winning the title appeared also to vanish and while Arsene Wenger did make full use of his squad in getting to Wembley, his selections weren't anywhere near as creative as those we'd seen when he had other silverware on his mind.

I certainly think incentive is a very solid way of working through the list and that's where Manchester United are at an advantage. Of the top seven in the betting, only they are without European commitments and we saw with Liverpool's Premier League exploits last season how advantageous this can be.

The obvious negative here is their record in the competition in recent times. Come May, it will be 11 years since they last lifted the trophy and eight since they reached a final, which confirms that they've been vulnerable - something we saw again last season when they lost to Swansea in the third round.

It's perhaps no coincidence, however, that their last triumph came specifically in 2004, the season which saw United finish 15 points adrift of Arsenal's Invincibles in the Premier League and go out of the Champions League at the last-16 stage, when Jose Mourinho announced himself to the footballing world with Porto.

This may be the first season since that United have that dangerous FA Cup combination of quality, confidence (both of which were lacking under David Moyes) and a lack of other commitments even if their manager will rightly still hold hope that his side can mount a serious title challenge.

Ben Coley on United "To the outsider looking in, United appear very likely to come up a good deal short in their title bid and should see this season as preparation for a stronger challenge next term. What better way to launch said challenge than with a piece of silverware?"
Ben Coley on United

To the outsider looking in, United appear very likely to come up a good deal short in their title bid and should see this season as preparation for a stronger challenge next term. What better way to launch said challenge than with a piece of silverware?

Encouragingly, while van Gaal says the league will remain his priority, there appears little doubt that he will take the FA Cup seriously, too, and in attacking terms he certainly has enough options to rotate in the early rounds - especially given that an away trip to Yeovil shouldn't pose too many problems.

In an interview with the Manchester Evening News at the start of December, van Gaal noted that the FA Cup has so far eluded most of his senior players and left me in no doubt that he's ready to lead a big United challenge.

"I know what the FA Cup means to this club, our players and our fans. Its place in the history of Manchester United is well known," said van Gaal, whose personal record in domestic cup competitions has long been excellent.

"So it is hard to believe that long-serving players such as Wayne Rooney, Michael Carrick and Jonny Evans have never won this cup. It is a medal I know they are desperate to get their hands on.

"Without Champions League football this season, and after the disappointment of being knocked out of the League Cup so early in the competition, the FA Cup will be a welcome addition to our current Premier League schedule.

"This is a very important competition and probably the most famous domestic cup in the world."

Of course, this could all come undone if United are drawn away at either Chelsea or City, where they would be underdogs, but those sides are focused on the Champions League right now and at the very least will be battling long and hard for the Premier League title right the way through to May.

For evidence, see last season when a strong-looking City side - Sergio Aguero started up front - lost 2-1 at home to Wigan, just days before a vital Champions League clash with Barcelona, a lack of intensity very much in evidence. A repeat from them as well as Chelsea - whose reliance on their spine means changes make them susceptible to a surprise defeat - could open things up significantly.

Prior to losing to Swansea last season, United's previous three FA Cup exits had come at the hands of Chelsea, Manchester City and Liverpool so it's not as if they've been frequently found out by lesser lights and they look a bet to take advantage of what looks an excellent opportunity.

Tottenham are the other side towards the head of the market who look fairly priced at 16/1 given how hard they are to beat and their fitness levels are such that Mauricio Pochettino may not have to rotate too much, even if his side progress deep into the Europa League.
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However, that they're also in the Capital One Cup quarter-finals and face an away trip to Premier League opponents (Burnley) in round three is enough to lead me elsewhere with Stoke worth an each-way punt at 40/1.

I'll win no prizes for originality here, I suspect, but I really don't see why a side with such a strong recent record in the FA Cup, one who won't be involved in the battle for European places or forced to fight for survival and have an excellent third-round draw, should be chalked up at 40s.

Many will remember Stoke's run to the final of this competition in 2011. Undoubtedly, the draw was kind but they did have to overcome three Premier League opponents (Wolves, West Ham and Bolton) along with two sides from the Championship.

Since then, they've been eliminated by Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea, each time by just one goal and, significantly, Mark Hughes named a very strong side for last season's trip to Stamford Bridge having also done so for a third-round victory over Leicester.

Perhaps had Hughes had Mame Biram Diouf and Bojan Krcic at his disposal just under a year ago, Stoke would've found a way past Chelsea but whether that's the case or not they've advertised that even with the very worst of the draw, they cannot be written off.

Indeed, a year before their run to the final Stoke saw off both Arsenal and Manchester City before losing to Chelsea - again away from home - so in the last five renewals of the FA Cup only the best sides in the country have beaten them and none with ease.

Given that Stoke face Wrexham in the third round I'm confident that they'll be in the hat for round four and, with their superb festive run meaning they're anchored now in mid-table, there's no reason they can't have a real go at this competition once more.

That they've won away at the Etihad Stadium this season also confirms to me that they're more dangerous on the road than ever before which acts as an added bonus as we know already that they're confident and hard to beat at home.

History suggests that if Stoke do take the FA Cup seriously, they'll be competitive whatever the task put in front of them and when you look at those around them in the betting, this unfashionable outfit look clear value.

They're the same price as Newcastle who have long been unwilling to take the competition seriously and are away at Premier League opponents in the third round. I find that utterly baffling, especially so in light of the continued turbulence at Mike Ashley's club.

Finally, the sponsors have again priced up the furthest-progressing team from the Sky Bet Football League and it's a market very much shaped by the draw.

High-flying Championship side Derby face Southport at home in the third round and are long odds-on to advance, which will ensure they attract a good deal of support as 9/1 favourites.

However, in each of the last two seasons this market has been won by a side who've reached the last four so Derby have a lot more work to do justify skinny quotes and I couldn't go near them, especially as their focus lies with promotion to the Premier League.

It's surely worth considering Ipswich at 22/1 - they're 15th in the betting despite being second in the Football League and may cause an upset at Southampton - but my vote goes to Charlton at 33/1.

The Addicks advanced to the sixth round last season, where they were actually favourites to beat Sheffield United, and are another side who sit in mid-table albeit they won't have given up hope of promotion nor consider survival a formality.

Only the top two sides in the division have lost fewer games than these draw specialists who might just be good enough to beat Blackburn at The Valley, after which we hope for another home draw. They're worth a small bet.